Adisseo (600299) 2018 Annual Report Comment: Falling Methionine Price Leads to Performance Decline and Waits to Come

Adisseo (600299) 2018 Annual Report Comment: Falling Methionine Price Leads to Performance Decline and Waits to Come

The event company released its 2018 annual report on the evening of March 20, 2019. In 2018, the company realized revenue of 11.4 billion yuan, an increase of 10%; net profit attributable to mothers9.

26 ppm, an average of 30% over a ten-year period;

70,000 yuan, an average of 30% in ten years; net cash flow from operating activities was 14.

410,000 yuan, 43% more than the average budget; average ROE6.

90%, ten-year average 3.

61 units.

The company plans to distribute 1 for every 10 shares.

73 yuan, a total of 4 dividends.

6.4 billion.

A brief comment on the intensified competition in the methionine industry and the pressure on performance caused pressure companies to continue to predict in the performance report that the net 天津夜网 profit in 2018 will be 9.

10,000 yuan, the annual reported net profit is slightly higher than expected.

The company’s performance fell sharply, mainly due to intensified competition in the methionine industry, price declines and exchange losses: the average price of liquid methionine in 2018 was 15.

4 yuan / kg, 18 of 2017 each year.

4 yuan / kg nitrate 16%, which caused the company’s gross profit margin to fall to 45% in 2018, and gross profit fell 30% to 28.


Although the price of vitamin A has actually increased from 351 yuan / kg to 701 yuan / kg, the company’s dependence on outsourcing of citral did not form a complete industrial chain. Problems with the supply of raw materials led to a decrease in volume, and the price increase and shrinkage affected to some extentIncreased profits.

The contraction of the company’s ROE was caused by the decrease in net profit margin caused by the increase in gross profit margin, and the asset turnover rate and debt did not change significantly.

In terms of cash flow, the company’s current net ratio and current revenue ratio are 119% and 104%, respectively. The cash flow is very healthy, the inventory, receivables, and changes in accounts receivable match the company’s business scale, and the turnover rate has remained basically stable.
The acquisition of minority stakes in Nutrition Group by cash will significantly increase the company’s net profit at the beginning. The company announced that it intends to acquire 15% of the shares of Adisseo Nutrition Group held by Blue Star Group in cash. The estimated value of the underlying equity is approximately $ 3.6 billion.

The headquarters of the company has already held 85% equity of Adisseo Nutrition Group. After the completion of the acquisition, Adisseo Nutrition Group will become a wholly-owned subsidiary of the company.

Adisseo Nutrition Group’s grain is the company’s main source of profit and loss for minority shareholders, and the profit and loss of minority shareholders in 2016, 2017 and 2018 were 4 respectively.

51, 3.


9 billion, accounting for 24%, 27% and 31% of the net profit attributable to the mother.

This acquisition is a cash acquisition and has no dilutive effect on EPS. It is expected that after the completion of the acquisition, the company’s net profit attributable to its mother company will increase significantly. However, due to the impact of the nutrition group’s preferred shares, the minority shareholders’ profits and losses will not be completely eliminated.

VA prices have fallen and the industry’s long-term pattern is still improving. In October 2017, due to the BASF fire accident, global VA prices skyrocketed, and the price of 500,000 units of VA was once as high as 1,425 yuan / kg, and then gradually fell back to the normal range after BASF resumed production.

Although at the end of 2018, due to the poor transportation of emergency factories in Europe, VA increased slightly again, but it is not comparable to the booming market from the end of 2017 to the beginning of 2018.

So far in 2019Q1, VA387 yuan / kg, the annual decline has reached 71%.

Looking forward to the future, despite the expansion of VA, more production capacity is still in the hands of several giants, and the industry pattern has not undergone a fundamental change. The construction of overseas BASF and other devices has been earlier, and the start-up has become unstable, while the demand side is relatively rigid.If there is an unexpected contraction on the supply side, the price of the product will continue to increase.

Methionine: The competition in the industry is becoming increasingly fierce, and the company’s cost advantage will obviously be laughed into. In 2018, the company’s Nanjing and Spain projects and Japan’s Sumitomo 10-target project will be put into operation. The global methionine production capacity will be 171.

5 additives increased to 189.

5 minimum value, the demand is about 135 digits, and the average annual growth rate is about 5.


The follow-up industry’s supplementary production capacity also includes Hebang Biological 5 replacement (expected to start production in 2019), Xinhecheng 10 plan (to start production at the end of 2019), Evonik 15 replacement (to start production in 2020), Novus Division 12 replacement (to start production in 2020),Xinhecheng has 15 goals (commissioned in 2021), and the company’s Nanjing 18-target project (commissioned in 2021). The industry will increase its total production capacity by about 75 tons, and competition will become increasingly fierce.

The company’s methionine scale advantage is obvious. After the Panda Phase 2 and Polar Projects are put into production, the methionine production capacity has increased to 49, and the output ratio has reached 26%.

After the new Nanjing plant 18 is gradually put into production, the company will reach a 67-inch methionine production capacity, which will secure the industry’s second-best position.

After the completion of the new Nanjing plant, scale effects will be realized with integrated production capacity, and production costs will be reduced by another 20%.

There is reason to believe that even if the methionine industry is gradually facing brutal competition, the company can have its own cost advantage that leads it to the end. Endogenous and simultaneous extension, special products became the second business unit reported by the company’s special products revenue increased by 31% to 22.

6 trillion, accounting for 16% of revenue in 2017.

63% rose to 19.

81%; accounting for 24% of gross profit.

01% rose to 27.

95% has become a veritable second business pillar of the company.

The scale of the company’s special product business has expanded rapidly. The integration benefited from the integration of Nutriad and the reorganization benefited from the strong sales growth of products such as Hilary Selenium and Antailai.

In addition, the company’s previously developed Rhodimax A + Dry products have the advantages of both liquid methionine concentration and solid methionine, and have great potential in the subsequent market.

It is estimated that the company’s net profit attributable to its parent in 2019 and 2020 will be US $ 1.2 billion and 1.4 billion respectively (the acquisition of minority equity is not yet calculated), and the corresponding PEs will be 26X and 23X.

The international community is full of confidence in China’s victory over the new coronavirus infection pneumonia epidemic

The international community is full of confidence in China’s victory over the new coronavirus infection pneumonia epidemic

Xinhua News Agency, Beijing, February 5th: Comprehensive Xinhua News Agency reporters report abroad: For the past few days, the international community has continued to pay attention to China’s fight against new coronavirus infection and pneumonia, and actively evaluate China’s gradual efforts to enable China to win the battle against diseaseFull of confidence.

  The Prime Minister’s Office of Tunisia announced a statement in support of the Chinese government’s efforts to fight the disease.

The statement said that I believe that China’s advanced medical technology and strong logistical support, with the support of the people, will win the ultimate victory in fighting the disease.

  Equatorial Guinea government official Eugenie Onzeobiang said the Equatorial Guinea government has decided to provide and support China’s fight against the epidemic.

Equatorial Guinea has always stood with China and will never stand by and watch China’s fight against the epidemic.

  Turkey ‘s King Mayor Ekreim Imamoglu said that Turkey has always been concerned about the Chinese government ‘s efforts to save patients ‘lives and prevent the spread of the virus, and believes that China ‘s action to fight the epidemic is efficient and has great dedication.

The Turkish people will stand with the Chinese people to fight the epidemic.

He also united the top international community with China, through cooperation and exchange of experiences, to overcome difficulties together.

  Sri Lankan Speaker Kalu Jaya Surya said that Sri Lanka admires the Chinese government and people for their resolute change to prevent and control the epidemic, 重庆夜生活网 and admires China’s initiative to cooperate with the international community, which reflects China’s high sense of responsibility for the welfare of the world.

Sri Lanka firmly believes that China will successfully fight the epidemic and is willing to fight alongside the Chinese people.

  Chilean Speaker Ivan Flores said that the Chinese government has taken corrective measures to fight the epidemic, that international cooperation is open and transparent, and China’s efforts are admirable.

Chile supports the Chinese government and people in fighting the epidemic, and firmly believes that China can finally overcome the epidemic.

  The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and non-OPEC oil-producing partners recently held a joint meeting of antiques in the Austrian capital Vienna.

OPEC Secretary-General Barkindo and the participating parties have expressed their firm support for China’s fight against the epidemic, highly concerned about China’s epidemic prevention and control measures, and believe that China has the ability to win the fight against the epidemic as soon as possible.

(Participating reporters: Huang Ling, Qiao Benxiao, Wang Feng, Tang Lu, Yin Nan, Zhang Xiaoran, Yu Tao) Original title: Comprehensive news: The international community is full of confidence in China’s victory over the pneumonia epidemic of new coronavirus infection

Risk capital pays attention to cutting-edge trading opportunities

Risk capital pays attention to cutting-edge trading opportunities
“Reporter Huang Lei” In the recent strike, we mainly paid attention to vertical trading 南宁桑拿 opportunities, paid attention to some thematic investments, a series of affected event factors, and localized concept stocks in the technology field, mainly focusing on operating systems, network security, integrated circuits, etc.field.We believe there are short-term investment opportunities in these sectors.”When asked how it will operate in the near future, the investment manager of a restructured large insurance agency told the Shanghai Securities News reporter.  It is understood that this is the current investment strategy of a large number of insurance institutions.That is to say, in the short term, the market is still expected to fluctuate slightly. Therefore, maintaining the current position level is the best choice, but it does not exclude focusing on some short-term investment opportunities.  Generally recognized insurance 杭州夜网 institutions believe that in the short term, the recent market sentiment is mainly affected by factors such as peripheral uncertainties that continue to ferment, but individual event factors mainly affect relatively limited industries and companies, and the actual subsequent development remains to be seen.The market support comes from reasonable estimates and corporate profits entering the bottom stabilization zone.  Therefore, the internal view of most insurance institutions is that the current overly pessimistic expectations of the market may be overreacting.Regarding the market outlook, they believe that considering that the A-share market has been fully adjusted, the market has returned to a low position in the previous period, and the stock market has maintained a good trend.However, the market is currently waiting to see a strong mood, and in the case of overall new strong variables, the probability of maintaining a narrow range of fluctuations converges.  However, in the medium and long term, insurance agencies believe that the estimates of some stocks have been readjusted to a relatively reasonable and low level, and they can be more optimistic about the follow-up market.  It is understood that the overall thinking and configuration of mainstream insurance institutions in the industry have not changed, and the market will choose the best allocation of high-quality targets during the process of market turnover.Their views on the farming, non-bank, banking and other sectors remain unchanged, and they believe that after a short-term make-up, there has been a certain price-performance advantage.On the whole, the industry allocation of insurance capital “heavy leader, light white horse” will continue.  In the bond market, a 7-day reverse repurchase of $ 100 billion was gradually netted last week, and the interest rate of funds throughout the week went up and down. Looking at the entire week last week, interest rate debt yields rose slightly overall, and credit bonds performed better than interest rate debt., The market may generally choose a short duration sinking rating.  ”Relatively speaking, the current high probability of the bond market is still a better trading window period.”” The bond investment manager of a large insurance institution said that the market pressure of small and medium-sized banks’ debt end and liquidity pressure, the interest rate yield has risen significantly, coupled with the bond market has been passive for two consecutive weeks, so he stillIt is recommended to maintain the leverage and coupon strategy, and at the same time, we will focus on trading opportunities after the interest rate rises further.

Great Wall Motor (601633) 2019H1 Interim Report Review: Promotion Increases Performance Under Pressure and Is Optimistic About Future Earnings Elasticity

Great Wall Motor (601633) 2019H1 Interim Report Review: Promotion Increases Performance Under Pressure and Is Optimistic About Future Earnings Elasticity
The company released its semi-annual report for 2019 and realized revenue of 413 in 2019H1.8 ppm, a ten-year average of 15.0%; net profit attributable to mother 15.2 ‰, 58 years ago.9%; net profit of non-attributed mothers is 12.4 ‰, 65 years ago.3%, consistent with the results of the performance forecast, in line with market expectations.Among them, 2019Q2 achieved revenue of 187.5 ‰, 15 years ago.2%; net profit attributable to mother 7.44 ‰, an average of 53 in ten years.9%; net profit after deducting non-attribution to mother 5.98 ‰, 58 years ago.9%. Analysis and judgment: The sales volume of the whole vehicle maintained a positive growth, and the original sales volume structure of the revenue breakdown was changed and the sales were promoted. The total vehicle sales of the company in 2019H1 is 49.40,000 vehicles, an increase of 4 per year.7%, which is significantly better than the passenger car industry’s alternative replacement14.0% sales growth level, but at the same time the company’s revenue was ten years.0%, we think the first includes: 1.Changes in sales structure: Sales of high-end brand WEY increased by 39.6%, Harvard M6, Euler R1, which has a higher unit price, are equivalently increased; 2.Facing the downturn in the auto market, the company adopted a strategy of exchanging prices for quantity, increasing product discounts and increasing rebates to dealers.By quarter, 2019Q2 achieved revenue of 187.5 ‰, 15 years ago.2%, the percentage of excess Q1 slightly expanded, taking into account the negative growth rate of sales in Q2 2019, exceeding the range of 2.4%, revenue performance and sales basically matched. The decline in gross profit margin was the precursor to the gradual expansion of profits. 2019H1 company gross profit margin 15.06%, about 5 in 2018H1.71pct, because it is due to the increase in preferential power, which leads to resettlement revenue and increases the proportion of fixed costs.In terms of expenses, 2019H1 sales expense ratio is 3.55%, about 0 in 2018H1.71pct, mainly due to the decline in transportation costs, after April, some transportation costs were included in operating costs, and the financial expense ratio was -0.18%, about 0 in 2018H1.80pct was mainly due to the decrease in exchange income and bank point expenses, the management expense ratio, and the R & D expense ratio slightly increased.36%, a slight drop of about 0 in 2018H1.39pct, little change overall.The decline in gross profit margin was the pioneer that led to the gradual expansion of profits, and the net profit margin for 2019H1 was only 3.85%, about 2018H1 significantly decreased 3.90 marks. Passenger car demand is expected to usher in an inflection point, with the company bottoming out and optimistic about the elasticity of performance. With the gradual elimination of sales disruption due to emissions upgrades, we believe that the inflection point in passenger car demand is expected to occur at the end of the third quarter. The company’s main product lines are undergoing positive changes, optimistic about the outbreak of performance elasticity: 1.The increase in the cost of F series traditional products is controllable, and the minimum center has been significantly improved, which will continue to support the sales and profit of the Haval brand in the short term; 2.2. The sales volume of high-end brand WEY has stabilized, and it is expected to break through after the accumulation of history; 3.4. Launched the Euler brand, a joint venture with BMW, and a stake in Yujie. The company’s attitude in transforming electric vehicles is resolute. At the same time, the three power and lithium mines are deployed in the upper and middle reaches to ensure the supply of resources and core components; 4.Pickup restrictions have been gradually lifted, and sales have continued to grow rapidly. According to data from China, the company ‘s pickup 杭州夜网 truck market share is stable at about 30%.Development trend; 5.Continue to integrate and optimize the resources of parts and components to increase the scale effect. When demand rises, it will contribute additional performance flexibility. The investment proposal estimates that the company’s EPS for 2019-21 is 0.49/0.66/0.81 yuan, corresponding to 16 for PE.9/12.5/10.2x, the company is currently at a low profit point, and it is reasonable to use PB evaluation. With reference to the company’s PB level in the past 5 years, give 2.3x PB estimate, corresponding to a target price of 12.97 yuan, the first coverage given a “buy” rating. Risk warnings: Passenger car segment sales are lower than expected; the market share of independent brand SUVs is falling; new energy vehicle sales are lower than expected.

Tongling Nonferrous Metals Co., Ltd. (000630): Capital increase in Tongguan Mine is beneficial to the company’s asset value

Tongling Nonferrous Metals Co., Ltd. (000630): Capital increase in Tongguan Mine is beneficial to the company’s asset value
Event description: On October 15, the company announced that it had subscribed for 30,000,108 shares of copper crown mine construction with its own funds of RMB 145,710,525.Before the capital increase, the company did not hold copper crown mine construction shares. After the capital increase is completed, the company will hold 20% of the equity of copper crown mine construction. Event comment: Copper Crown Mine Construction 南京桑拿网 plans to go public. Expected investment value doubles. Copper Crown Mine Construction’s main business is mining services. At present, the main internal mines in Mongolia, Kazakhstan, South America, Africa and other regions already have operations.In the first half of 2019, total copper crown mine construction assets6.9.9 billion, net assets 3.01 billion; realized operating income 4.6.6 billion, net profit 3819.700,000 yuan.Benchmarking the integrity of companies in the same industry, in terms of revenue and net profit, the copper crown mine has a market value of more than 1.5 billion. With a 20% stake, the company holds 300 million assets, which is double the current investment.The group and the company have their own mines, which is expected to form a synergistic effect with the construction of Tongguan Mine, which will increase 夜来香体验网 the mine cost and construction efficiency. The Mirado Copper Mine has begun production, and the Group has injected expectations that the company currently has more than 200 tons of copper ore resources on its own scale. It produces about 5 copper ore per year and the Group has more than 1,000 tons of copper resources.The Group’s Xia Mirado Copper Mine started production in July and production is currently stable.The project is divided into two phases for a total of 19 moments, and the amount of copper metal in the first phase is almost 10 seconds. It is expected that the output will be reached in 2021.With the stability of copper mine profitability, the Group has strong expectations of injecting assets into listed companies. Focusing on breakthroughs in 5G copper foil, entering the 5G industry chain to open profit growth points The company currently produces copper foils in three plants, 1 of which.750,000 is lithium foil.The capacity of copper foil will increase to 5 in the next two years.No. 5 became the largest copper foil manufacturer in China.The company’s overall core development of 5G copper foil is expected to enter the 5G industry chain and open new profit growth points. At the same time, the company’s copper foil business integration is completed, or it may impact the listing of the science and technology board to further increase the company’s scale. Investment rating and estimation: According to the profit forecast, the company’s net profit attributable to its parent in 2019-2021 is expected to be 7, respectively.8.3 billion, 9.2.1 billion, 10.90 ppm; corresponding PE is 32.79, 27.88, 23.56.Maintain the “Recommended” level. Risk warning: the risk of falling copper prices; the risk of falling copper foil processing fees; the release of production capacity is less than expected.

Perfect World (002624) Third Quarterly Report Review: Glorious Game Performance Meets Expectations

Perfect World (002624) Third Quarterly Report Review: Glorious Game Performance Meets Expectations

The results are above the forecast limit, in line with expectations 1) Revenue for the first three quarters of 201958.

12 ppm, an increase of 5 in ten years.

43%, net profit attributable to mother 14.

76 ppm, an increase of 12 in ten years.

00%, after deducting non-return to the net profit of the mother 14.

20 ppm, an increase of 28 in ten years.

47%; 2) Revenue in 2019Q3 21.

5.6 billion, an annual increase of 16.

77%, net profit attributable to mother 4.

55 ppm, a decrease of 15 per year.

南宁桑拿00%, net profit after returning to mother 4.

470,000 yuan, an increase of 12 in ten years.

13%, we think that the net profit attributable to the mother of the company in Q3 2019 will decrease. The main reason is that the company disposes part of Zulong’s equity in Q3 2018 and recognizes non-recurring profit and loss after tax1.

Due to 1 trillion, there is no such large non-recurring income in Q3 2019; 3) The joint stock company announced the forecast of the first three quarters of 2019, and the net profit attributable to the parent is 14.


Between 90 trillion, the third quarter results are in line with expectations.

The mobile games business performed well.

1) In the first three quarters, the company launched popular mobile games “Perfect World” and “Grand Condor 2”, etc. Among them, “Perfect World” mobile tour was launched in early March and “Grand Condor 2″ was launched at the end of July.”Perfect World” mobile games still have a monthly flow of more than 2 trillion points, “The Condor Heroes 2” mobile games have a monthly flow of more than 100 million points; 2) rich reserve games, future mobile game product lines include “My Origin”, “New Demon Continent”, “Xiao Xiao Ao Jiang Jiang Hu”, “Fantasy New Zhexian”, “Remains of War” and so on.

The TV series has a slow pace.

The 2019 Q3 TV series “Shanyue” and “Old Tavern” were launched. Considering the price and investment ratio of the two dramas, we expect the profit of the two dramas to contribute about 40 million.

Profit forecast: The company has a rich mobile game product line, “My Origin” is about to go online, and the TV drama business is expected to improve margins.

The 2019/20/21 EPS is expected to be 1.



03 yuan, closing price on October 25 corresponds to 18/16/14 times PE, maintaining the level of “prudent increase”.

Risk warning: product launch is less than expected; policy supervision intensifies

Yuyue Medical (002223): Steady performance growth Q3 e-commerce growth accelerates

Yuyue Medical (002223): Steady performance growth Q3 e-commerce growth accelerates
Performance summary: The company achieved operating income of 35 都市夜网 in the first three quarters of 2019.6 ppm, an increase of 11 in ten years.8%; net profit attributable to mother 7.100 million, an increase of 13 in ten years.5%; net profit deducted from non-attributed mothers 6.90,000 yuan, an increase of 14 in ten years.7%. The overall growth of performance was stable, and the overall control of expenses was well controlled.The company’s overall performance in the first three quarters was stable compared with the first half of the year, of which Q3 revenue and net profit attributable to mothers increased by 10 respectively.2% and 13.6%, a slight increase from the previous Q2 growth rate.The company’s revenue growth rate this year fluctuated slightly from last year, mainly due to the impact of channel destocking, of which the core oxygen generator has the largest impact.In terms of expenses, the selling expenses for the first three quarters were 3.800 million, selling expenses 10.7%, an increase of 0 compared with the same period last year.8 singles are expected to be mainly due to the continuous increase in marketing efforts, with management costs of 1.900 million, administrative expenses 5.3%, a decline of 0 per year.3 units. The growth of home medical care is steady, and the growth of oxygen generator Q4 is expected to pick up.Affected by channel destocking, the company’s OTC end-to-line growth is expected to be negative in the first three quarters, but e-commerce is expected to grow close to 25%, which is an improvement from the 20% growth rate in the first half of the year, mainly for electronic blood pressure monitors, blood glucose systems, sleep ventilatorsCaused by rapid product growth. In terms of products, the company ‘s electronic sphygmomanometers are expected to grow by about 30% in the first three quarters, the blood glucose system by about 40%, the sleep ventilator by about 20%, and the core product oxygen generator replacement, of which the impact of destocking will be affected by the increase in online estimates.It is expected that through the decomposition of inventory factors, growth in the fourth quarter will improve. The clinical business performance was solid, and the start-up factory resumed growth.The company’s clinical business is expected to continue its steady growth trend in the first half of the year.From the perspective of spin-off, Suzhou Medical Factory is expected to grow by more than 20%, and the revenue of Zhongyou Medicine will increase by about 20%, showing a stable performance.Through the technical transformation of production capacity, 南宁桑拿 Shanghai Medical Devices Group is expected to increase its revenue by nearly 20% in the first three quarters, of which it is expected that revenue will increase by about 30%. Earnings forecasts and investment advice.It is expected that the net profit attributable to mothers for 2019-2021 will be 8.5 billion, 10.400 million and 12.600 million, corresponding estimates are 25 times, 21 times, and 17 times.Considering that the company is an absolute leader in the field of domestic medical equipment, it continues to benefit from aging and maintains a “buy” level. Risk warning: core product sales may decline sharply, and clinical business integration may fall short of expectations.

China Communications Construction (601800): Orders speed up and performance stabilizes and rebounds

China Communications Construction (601800): Orders speed up and performance stabilizes and picks up

The performance was slightly higher than expected, and the order growth accelerated. In the first three quarters of 2019, the company realized operating income of 3747 trillion, an increase of 14%; net profit attributable to mothers was 13.3 billion, an increase of 3.

7%, the rapid income growth mainly benefited from the rebound in infrastructure bottoming and the acceleration of investment project revenue.

The company’s orders accelerated, with 653.7 billion new contracts signed in the first three quarters, an increase of 12%.

Among them, the value of newly signed contracts for infrastructure construction, infrastructure design, dredging and other businesses were 573.5 billion, 29 billion, 43.9 billion and 7.3 billion, respectively, increasing respectively.

6%, -8.

6%, 18.

7%, 59.

In the new start-up single infrastructure construction orders, municipal environmental protection has grown rapidly, with 250 billion yuan newly signed, an increase of 87% over many years, accounting for 44% of infrastructure orders.

The contract value of investment projects was 108.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.

77%, accounting for about 17% of the value of newly signed contracts; new overseas contracts signed were 142.4 billion, an increase of 6.

51%, overseas orders accounted for 22% of the company’s new contract value.

Gross profit margin decreased and the company’s operating capacity remained stable. The company’s gross profit margin for the first three quarters of 2019 was 11.

82%, down by 1 every year.

36pct, net interest rate is 3.

80%, a decline of 0 every year.

At 27pct, the decrease in gross profit margin was mainly due to the decrease in overseas high-profit project income compared with the previous two years, and the intensification of traditional business competition.

Period expenses7.

37%, a decrease of 0 per year.

49pct, in which the overhead rate decreased by 0.

16pct to 6.

03%, the financial expense ratio decreased by 0.

29 points to 1.

16%, the sales expense ratio decreased by 0.

02pct to 0.


Asset and liability accounting 74.

96%, down by 1 every year.


Realized operating net cash flow of -38.2 billion, a slight increase in cash flow over the same period last year–30.4 billion.

In terms of quarterly revenue growth, the company completed revenues of 1623 trillion, 1022 trillion, 1380 trillion, and 1344 trillion in 18Q4, 19Q1, Q2, and Q3, an increase of 7 respectively.

51%, 9.

64%, 19.

89%, 11.

86%; net profit 68.

200 million, 39.

300 million, 46.

500 million, 47.

60,000 yuan, an increase of -22 in ten years.97%, 14.

45%, -1.

99%, 1.


Revenue grew steadily.

Investment suggestion: Infrastructure investment is picking up. Maintain “Buy” rating. Infrastructure investment has fallen short of expectations since this year, and the company ‘s performance is also slightly lower than expected. Currently, it has fallen 北京桑拿洗浴保健 to a new low in the past five years and PB is only 0.

8 times, we maintain the previous profit forecast, the company’s EPS in 19-21 is expected to be 1.



56 yuan, the current sustainable corresponding PE is 7 respectively.



1 times.

We think a reasonable estimate range is 8-9 times, corresponding to a price of 10.


97 yuan, maintain “Buy” rating.

Risk reminders: bad debts of accounts receivable, feasibility of infrastructure investment, orders falling below expectations, etc.

Semir Apparel (002563): The brand concept of Semir is updated and the original children’s wear continues to increase. KIDILIZ drags down performance in line with expectations.

Semir Apparel (002563): The brand concept of Semir is updated and the original children’s wear continues to increase. KIDILIZ drags down performance in line with expectations.

Event company 19H1 achieved operating income of 82.

19 ppm, an increase of 48 in ten years.

57%; net profit attributable to mother 7.

22 ppm, a ten-year increase of 8.

20%; net profit of non-attributed mothers 6.

69 ppm, a ten-year increase of 8.


The brief evaluation led to the update of the content of major casual wear brands. Children’s wear maintained a high increase of about 30%. H1 combined with Kidlitz’s thickening income was obvious, and it could achieve revenue of 67.

1.5 billion, an increase of 21.

38%, maintaining 20% + high growth, Q2 improvement 杭州桑拿 expectations mainly due to the impact of the pace of shipments, Q1 shipments expanded and concentrated.

Casual wear last year ‘s net opening of 555 stores exceeded expectations (excluding the listed Shanghai-based Mori related brand stores), which is the basis for this year ‘s growth trend. At the same time, this year ‘s store opening rhythm has changed, and key stock stores have been adjusted and deepened.(370 newly opened and 342 closed).

Income increased by 12.

15% to 29.

4.4 billion.

At the beginning of this year, the Senma brand proposed a new value standard of “quality in everyday life”, which will gradually improve the sense of product quality and promote the expansion of multiple categories such as footwear and supplies.

The overall H1 of children’s clothing has a net opening of 228 to 6,303, with an increase in revenue of 81.

66% to 52.

From the perspective of sales scale, the company’s children’s clothing segment has ranked among the top in the world.

The original children’s clothing segment H1 opened a total of 233 to 5,526 stores, with a 29% increase in revenue.

2% to 37.

08 million yuan, maintaining a growth rate of about 30%, the earlier 18H2 growth rate was 2 higher.


Barbara’s main contribution was that same-store growth was faster than casual wear. Macalore and minibalabla also achieved high-speed growth. Minibalabla’s revenue in the first half increased by 102.

88%, the synergy effect in the market segment is fully reflected.

In terms of channels, the long-term business H1 is directly operated, with 21 net openings, 260 to 784, and 8,620, respectively, with revenue increasing by 7 respectively.

36%, 20.

83% to 8.

8.3 billion, 37.

0.5 billion.

E-commerce revenue increased by 31 last year.

6%, H1 continues to achieve 29 this year.

90% increase to 20.

8.5 billion, continued to maintain steady and high growth. At the end of last year, the high stocking strategy provided sales growth support, and the e-commerce industrial park was completed and put into use.

Kidiliz contributed approximately 1.5 billion in revenue. To increase expansion efforts, Kidiliz contributed 15 operating revenue.

0.4 billion, with a significant increase in thickness.

In the first half of the year, there were 25 to 757 stores closed.

The company completed the strategic planning for Kidiliz development, sorted out its own brands, and invested in smaller and better brands such as CATIMINI and ABSORBA. Both brands have opened stores in China.

The remaining brands are adjusted.Kidiliz can revoke about 1 in the first half.

The impact of $ 0.9 billion on the parent company’s statements is in line with the company’s expectations and precautionary measures will be taken to support its adjustment, innovation and development.

The gross profit margin continued to increase, and the Q2 performance of the original business increased at an accelerated rate. Consolidation + inventory increase increased inventory and increased H1 comprehensive gross profit margin44.

84%, the same increase of 6.

49 pct, mainly due to Kidiliz, which has a high proportion of direct sales, has increased. Kidiliz’s gross profit margin is about 66%, and Barabara’s gross profit margin is about 42%, which is almost a slight increase.

Casual wear gross margin 37.

18%, the same increase of 2.

25 pct, mainly due to the control of the discount rate this year, and price increases due to the improvement of product quality.

Expense rate during H1 is 29.

84%, the same increase of 9.

53 pct, also mainly due to Kidiliz consolidation.

Selling expense ratio increased by 6.

78 pct to 23.

89%, the management + R & D expense ratio increased by 2.

45 to 6.


Asset impairment losses also increased by 39.

08% to 15.

47 million, mainly due to increased inventory depreciation reserves.

Kidiliz dragged down overall performance growth, excluding its first half of the year.

09 million US dollars, usually the business performance and deduction are increased by about 24.

5%, 25.

6%, of which the actual business performance of Q1 and Q2 increased by about 21% and 28%, respectively. The lower performance elasticity coefficient of higher Q2 income was mainly due to the increase in the gross profit margin in a single quarter and the expense ratio decreased.

Overall performance maintained good growth.

At the end of H1, the amount of inventory was about 42 trillion, an increase of 59%. The main reason is that Kidiliz consolidated the new inventory and increased the stock.% -26%, similar to the original business revenue growth, the turnover days increased slightly, the overall turnover days increased by 38 days to 171 days.

Investment suggestion: Semir’s brand concept is updated and upgraded, product quality is followed up, multiple categories are extended smoothly, the overall connotation is richer, bringing potential for price increases in the future, and steady growth in the first half of the year.

The original children’s clothing continued to grow rapidly, the store opening rhythm maintained, and it continued to settle in more shopping malls across the country, with store efficiency leading the industry.

It is expected that after the improvement of the consumption environment, the business will gradually achieve better growth.

Kidiliz reached and published this year, it will significantly increase revenue. The company ‘s clear long-term development plan, highlighting differentiated development, improving resource allocation efficiency, and accelerating the release of key brands. It is expected to continue gradually, but it is expected to control the pace of growth.Exceeded the expected range.

We estimate the company’s net profit attributable to its parent in 2019/2018.

9.6 billion, 22.

30,000 yuan, EPS is 0.

70 yuan / share, 0.

82 / share, corresponding to PE at 16 times and 14 times, maintaining the “buy” level.

Risk factors: Kidiliz continues to drag down performance; casual wear 佛山桑拿网 gradually opens stores; consumption environment fluctuates.

AVIC Aircraft (000768): The core assets of large aircrafts are listed on the market.

AVIC Aircraft (000768): The core assets of large aircrafts are listed on the market.

Event: The company issued an advisory announcement on planning a major asset replacement and related party transaction.

1) The company intends to put in the assets of the whole machine manufacturing and maintenance business, and plans to put out some assets of the aircraft parts manufacturing business, and the actual controllers of both parties of the transaction will replace the aviation industry.

2) The assets to be listed in the listed company include 100% assets of Xifei, Shaanxi and Zhongfei hydroplanes. The assets to be included include all assets and impedances of Changsha Landing Gear Branch, Xi’an Brake Branch, and 100% of Guizhou Xinan Aviation MachineryEquity rights; 3) The transaction price has not yet been determined, and the specific replacement price will be determined based on the estimated value of the put-in assets and the put-out assets to be recorded by the state-owned asset management department.

Investment Highlights: The goal of this transaction plan may be to achieve the overall listing of the core assets of Xifei, Shaanxi and other large aircraft manufacturing, and to effectively replace inefficient assets, focusing on the main aviation aircraft industry, or to promote the high performance of listed companies.Quality development.

Xifei is an advanced production base for large and medium-sized military and civilian aircraft in developing countries. Its products cover large transport aircraft, large early-warning aircraft and C919 large passenger aircraft. Shaanxi is a leading manufacturer of military-civilian transport aircraft and special aircraft in China. It has successively developed 30Remaining special aircraft, including Air Police -200, Air Police 500 early warning aircraft, anti-submarine patrol aircraft and other “star samples”.

In 2009, Xifei International purchased the aviation business assets owned by Xifei and Shaanxi by issuing shares, but the rest of the group assets were outside the listed company. Judging from the plan for this asset replacement, the future may be realizedFei and Shaan Fei’s overall listing further introduced the company’s strategic positioning and asset scarcity as the only platform for domestic large aircraft affiliated to the aviation industry; at the same time, the placement of inefficient assets and their resistance will cause the company to dump its historical burdenEnter the battlefield, gather advantageous resources, and develop the core business of the aviation industry.

The forthcoming announcement is a related reminder announcement, the transaction is still in the planning stage, and the implementation details have not been finalized; we judge that the asset replacement plan of the reorganized Hongdu Airlines is expected to be merged, and the method of supplementing the difference between the placement and the placement of assets will not involve additional shares.
In this asset replacement, the difference between the amount of assets to be placed and the amount of assets to be placed will be made up in cash; however, the transaction is still in the planning stage, and specific details such as asset valuation and transaction structure remain to be discussed.

Hongdu Aviation issued a notice on November 15, 2018 to propose asset replacement. It plans to place assets related to the missile business and part of its parts manufacturing business and assets. On June 1, 2019, Hongdu Aviation issued assets.Announcement of the replacement transaction, after assessment and confirmation by the SASAC, asset assessment variable 22 was set aside.

RMB 80,000, which was put into asset evaluation and assessment13.

62 megabytes. The difference between the placed assets and the placed assets is made up by Hongdu Group in cash to Hongdu Aviation. According to the principle of “debts, debts carry assets business,” all the debt rights and debts involved in the assets are released.Both were inherited by Hongdu Group.

We analyze and predict that considering that the actual controllers of Hongdu Aviation and AVIC Aircraft replace the aviation industry, the implementation path of the subsequent transaction plan or the idea of Hongdu Aviation’s tactical asset replacement plan, there may be an asset replacement plan that does not involve the issue of additional shares.It can effectively reduce the asset-debt ratio of listed companies, optimize their asset structure, and increase the company’s scale returns.

The company’s current net profit margin of sales is at the bottom of the five major OEMs. With the overall listing of the large aircraft’s overall assets, the state-owned enterprise reform has taken substantial steps or will enhance the ability and motivation of listed companies to deliver performance growth.

Taking the net profit margin of sales as the criterion, the five major OEMs (AVIC Aircraft, Aviation Power, Zhongzhi, AVIC Shenfei, and Inner Mongolia One) achieved 1 in 2018 respectively.

52%, 4.

69%, 3.

91%, 3.

70%, 4.

38%, the top three OEMs in the first three quarters of 2019 achieved 1, respectively.

72%, 3.

54%, 3.

79%, 3.

92%, 5.

63%, the company’s profit level is at the bottom of the top five OEMs, and there may be potential room for improvement in the future.

Prior to this, the listed company that has achieved the overall listing of military aircraft is AVIC Shenfei, which is the sole target for the overall listing of fighter aircraft manufacturing, and has completed the first phase of the equity incentive plan; consider the former and the actual controller of AVIC aircraftAll are AVIC. As a pilot unit of a domestic capital investment company, AVIC aircraft will not rule out the possibility of deepening the reform of state-owned enterprises around the incentive mechanism in the future.

The forthcoming plan may help the company integrate research and development resources, improve operational efficiency, and improve the profitability of listed companies, and also provide a good foundation for further improvement of the corporate governance structure and incentive mechanism.

For the first time, focus on the core investment logic of the company’s mid- and long-term value: 1) Under the Air Force construction strategy of “integration of air and space, both offensive and defensive”, there will be a significant gap in combat support aircraft.Benefit.

2) The company’s military-to-civilian business cuts 武汉夜生活网 into the mainline civil aircraft assembly and parts and components business. The advantage of the card position may promote the expansion of the civil aircraft market with space.

3) As the assembly body of large domestic aircraft, the company may benefit from the release of performance brought about by possible breakthroughs such as the reform of the military pricing mechanism.

4) Against the background of the pilot aviation industry’s promotion of state-owned capital investment companies, the company may accelerate the reform of state-owned enterprises, improve its internal governance structure, promote the reform of incentive mechanisms to motivate employees, and strive to significantly improve the quality of the company’s operations and management.

Maintain profit forecast and buy level.

We maintain the company’s attributable net profit forecast for 19 to 6 苏州桑拿网 years.



78 million, corresponding to 19/20/21 over 19 growth rate.

8% / 22.

6% / 19.

3%, currently sustainable (2019/11/6, 16.60 yuan / share) corresponding to PE is 69, 56 and 47 times; calculated based on 2019 forecast revenue, the current market value of AVIC aircraft (46 billion) corresponds to 1 PS in 2019.

30 times, select domestic OEMs that have similar business to the company, and compare the company’s PS scale in 2019 to 1.

66 times; the company’s current PB is 2.

81 times, comparable company PB out of 3.

01 times; company PB, PS estimates are lower than the average of comparable companies.

As the only general assembly target of large-scale military aircraft in the country, the company enjoys exclusive procurement of scarce core assets for heavy military aircraft purchases, overlapping military product pricing systems, and state-owned enterprises to improve quality and efficiency. In the future, there may be better performance and steady growth and the potential for reform of state-owned enterprises.Rating.
Risk reminders: 1) The transaction is still in the planning stage, and there are still significant uncertainties in related matters; 2) New aircraft development, delivery progress and use effects are less than expected; 3) Civil aircraft and other civil-military integration business development risks 4) Military aircraftUncertainty in the timing and magnitude of purchase price adjustments.